Rohani Lab

Population Biology of Infectious Diseases


Bento, A.I., King, A.A. & Rohani, P.  Maternal pertussis immunization: clinical gains and epidemiological legacy. EuroSurveillance. URL



Bento, A.I. & Rohani, P.  Forecasting epidemiological consequences of maternal immunization.  Clinical Infectious Diseases.  63 Supp 4: S205-S212

Blackwood, J.C., Cummings, D.A.T., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Rohani, P.  Using age-stratified incidence data to examine the transmission consequences of pertussis vaccination. Epidemics 16: 1-7.  PDF

Magpantay, F.M.G., Domenech de Celles, M., Rohani, P. & King, A.A. Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Parasitology. 143: 835-849 PDF

Domenech de Celles, M., Magpantay, F.M.G., King, A.A. & Rohani, P.  The Pertussis Enigma: Reconciling Epidemiology, Immunology, and Evolution. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. 283: 20152309 PDF

Vinson, J.E., Drake, J.M., Rohani, P. & Park, A.W.  The potential for sexual transmission to compromise control of Ebola virus outbreaks. Biology letters, 12: 584-587.  PDF

Kramer, A.M., Pulliam, J.T.,  Alexander, L.W., Park, A.W., Rohani, P. & John M. Drake.  Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.  Royal Society Open Science. 3: 160294. PDF



Riolo, M.A. & Rohani, P.  Combating Pertussis Resurgence: One Booster Vaccination Schedule Doesn’t Fit All. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA doi/10.1073/pnas.1415573112 PDF

Martinez-Bakker, M., King, A.A., & Rohani, P.  Unraveling the transmission ecology of polio. PLoS Biology 13 (6), e1002172. PDF

Shrestha, S., Foxman, B., Berus, J., van Panhuis, W.G., Weinberger, D.M., Steiner, C., Viboud, C. &  Rohani, P.  The role of influenza in the epidemiology of pneumonia. Nature Scientific Reports 5: 15314. PDF

Magpantay, F.M.G. & Rohani, P.  Pertussis epidemiology in the United States during the early vaccine era.  American Journal of Epidemiology 181: 921-31. PDF

Handel, A. & Rohani, P. (2015) Crossing the scale from within-host infection dynamics to transmission fitness: A discussion of current assumptions and knowledge. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B. 370: 20140302 PDF

King, A.A., Domenech de Celles, M., Magpantay, F.M.G. & Rohani, P. (2015) Avoidable errors in the modeling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. PDF

Riolo, M.A., Rohani, P. & Hunter, M.D.  Local variation in plant quality influences large-scale population dynamics.  Oikos 124: 1160-1170. PDF



Roche, B., Drake, J.M., Brown, J., Stallknecht, D.E., Bedford, T. & Rohani, P.   Adaptive evolution and environmental durability jointly structure phylodynamic patterns in avian influenza viruses. PLoS Biology 12 e1001931. PDF

Martinez-Bakker, M., Bakker, K.M., King, A.A. & Rohani, P.  Human Birth Seasonality: Latitudinal Gradient and Interplay wit Childhood Disease Dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 281 20132438. PDF

Handel, A., Lebarbenchon, C., Stallknecht, D.E. & Rohani, P.  Trade-offs within and between scales: Environmental persistence and in-host fitness of avian influenza viruses. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 281 20133051. PDF

Magpantay, F.G., Riolo, M.A., Domenech de Celles, M., King, A.A. & Rohani, P.  Population-level models of imperfect vaccines.SIAM Applied Mathematics 74: 1810–1830.  PDF

See SIAM Nuggets piece, as well as Inside Science article.

Brown, V.L., Drake, J.M., Stallknecht, D.E., Brown, J.D., Pedersen, K. & Rohani, P.  Neutrality, Cross-Immunity and Subtype Dominance in Avian Influenza Viruses. PLoS ONE 9 e88817.  PDF

Jackson, D. & Rohani, P.  Perplexities of pertussis: recent global epidemiological trends and their potential causes. Epidemiology & Infection 42 672-684.  PDF

Barton, H., Rohani, P., Stallknecht, D., Brown, J. & Drake, J.M.  Subtype diversity and reassortment potential for co-circulating avian influenza viruses at a diversity hotspot. Journal of Animal Ecology 83 566?575.  PDF

Domenech de Celles, M., Riolo, M., Magpantay, F.M.G., Rohani, P. & King, A.A. Acellular Pertussis Vaccines and Herd Immunity: The Epidemiological Evidence. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci USA10.1073/pnas.1323795111. PDF.

Pepin, K.M. et al.  Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in USA poultry.  Preventative Veterinary Medicine 113 (4), 376-397.



Shrestha, S., Foxman,B., Weinberger, D.M., Steiner, C., Viboud, C. & Rohani, P. Identifying the interaction between influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia using incidence data. Science Translational Medicine 5: 191ra84. PDF

Associated Commentary: Lello, J (2013) Coinfection: Doing the Math. Sci. Transl. Med. 5: 191fs24. PDF

Blackwood, J.C., Cummings, D.A.T., Broutin, H., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Rohani, P.  Deciphering the impacts of vaccination and immunity on pertussis epidemiology in Thailand.  Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci USA. doi:10.1073/pnas.1220908110. PDF

Blackwood, J.C., Streicker, D., Altizer, S.A. & Rohani, P. Resolving the roles of immunity, pathogenesis and immigration for rabies persistence in vampire bats. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci USA. 110 (51), 20837-20842.

Riolo, M.A., King, A.A. & Rohani, P.  Can vaccine legacy explain the British pertussis resurgence? Vaccine 31: 5903-5908. PDF

Shrestha, S., Foxman,B., Dawid, S., Aiello, A.E., Davis, B.M., Berus, J. & Rohani, P. Time and dose-dependent risk of pneumococcal pneumonia following influenza: A model for within-host interaction between influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae J. R. Soc. Interface. 10: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0233. PDF

Barton, H., Rohani, P., Stallknecht, D., Brown, J. & Drake, J.M.  Subtype diversity and reassortment potential for co-circulating avian influenza viruses at a diversity hotspot.   J. Anim. Ecol.  83: 566-575

Handel, A., Brown J.D., Stallknecht, D.E. & Rohani, P.  A multi-scale analysis of influenza A virus fitness trade-offs due to temperature-dependent virus persistence.  PLoS Comp. Biol. 9(3): e1002989. PDF

Brown, V.L., Drake, J.M., Stallknecht, D.E., Brown, J.D., Pedersen, K. & Rohani, P.  Dissecting a wildlife disease hotspot: the impact of multiple host species, environmental transmission and seasonality in migration, breeding and mortality.  J. R. Soc. Interface 10 20120804; doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.0804. PDF

Roche, B. Rohani, P., Dobson, A.P. & Guegan, J.-F. Community ecology and epidemiology of infectious diseases: a new framework to study pathogen transmission through host community species. Am. Nat. 181. PDF

Reich, N.G., Shrestha, S., King, A.A., Rohani, P., Lessler, J., Kalayanarooj, S., Yoon,I.K., Gibbons, R.V., Burke, D.S. & Cummings, D.A.T. Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity. J. R. Soc. Interface 10: 20130414.  PDF



Choisy, M. & Rohani, P.  Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA.  Proceedings of the Royal Society of London – B.  PDF

Blackwood, J.C., Cummings, D.A.T., Broutin, H., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Rohani, P.  The population ecology of infectious diseases: pertussis in Thailand as a case study.  Parasitology  139 Special Issue 14: 1888-1898. PDF

Roche, B. , Dobson, A.P., Guegan, J.-F. & Rohani, P. Community epidemiology may drive disease patterns for vector-borne pathogens. Phil. Trans, R. Soc. Lond. 367: 2807-2813. PDF

Lavine, J.S. & Rohani, P. Resolving pertussis immunity and vaccine efficiency using incidence time series.  Expert Review of Vaccines11: 1319-1329. PDF

Brown, V.L. & Rohani, P.  The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza hotspot.  Biol. Letts. doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635. PDF

Goldwyn, E.E. & Rohani, P. Pertussis Reporting Bias and its Public Health Implications.  Journal of Public Health Management & Practice 19: 379-382

Streicker, D.G., Recuenco, S., Valderrama, W., Gomez Benavides, J. Vargas, I., Pacheco, V., Condori, E., Montgomery, J., Rupprecht, C.E., Rohani, P. & Altizer, S. Ecological and Anthropogenic Drivers of Rabies Exposure in Vampire Bats: Implications for Transmission and Control. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London – B 279, 3384–3392.  PDF

Davis, B.M., Aiello, A.E., Dawid, S., Rohani, P., Shrestha, S. & Betsy Foxman. Influenza and community-acquired pneumonia interactions: the impact of order and time of infection on population patterns. Am. J. Epid. 175: 363-367. PDF

WHO-VMI Dengue Vaccine Modeling Group.  Assessing the Potential of a Candidate Dengue Vaccine with Mathematical Modeling. PLoS Neg. Trop. Dis. 6(3), e1450. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001450.t001.  PDF



Shrestha, S., King, A.A. & Rohani, P. Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems. PLoS Comp. Biol. 7:e1002135.  PDF

Roche, B. , Drake, J.M. & Rohani, P.  The curse of the pharoah revisited: virulence polymorphism in environmentally transmitted pathogens. Ecology Letters. 14: 569–575.  PDF

Roche, B., Drake, J.M. & Rohani, P. An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses. BMC Bioinformatics 12: 87. PDF

Rohani, P. & Drake, J.M.  The decline and resurgence of pertussis in the US.  Epidemics 3: 183– 188.



Rohani, P., Zhong, X. & King, A.A. Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis.  Science 330: 982-985. Full TextAbstractScience PDF.

Rohani, P.  & King, A.A. Never mind the length, feel the quality: Long-term epidemiological data and theory, application and policy. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 25: 611–618 . PDF

Broutin, H., Viboud, C., Grenfell, B.T., Miller, M.A. & Rohani, P. Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of Pertussis: a Comparative Study in 64 countries. Proc R Soc Lond B 277: 3239-3245.  PDF

Roche, B. & Rohani, P. Environmental Transmission Scrambles Coexistence Patterns of Avian Influenza Viruses. Epidemics. 2: 92-98. PDF

White, S.M., Rohani, P. & Sait, S.M. Modelling pulsed releases for sterile insect techniques: Fitness costs of sterile and transgenic males and the effects on mosquito dynamics. J. Appl. EcolPDF

Breban, R., Drake, J.M. & Rohani, P. A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: Invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states. J. Theor. Biol.  264: 729-736. PDF

Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., Bjornstad, O.N., Grenfell, B.T. & Rohani, P. Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. J. R. Soc. Interface 7: 727-739.  PDF

Bonds, M.H., Keenan, D.C., Rohani, P. & Sachs, J.D. Poverty Trap Driven by Feedback Between Economics and Ecology of Infectious Diseases. Proc R Soc Lond B. 277, 1185-1192.  PDF

Conlan, A.J., Rohani, P., Keeling, M.J., Lloyd, A. & Grenfell, B.T.  Balancing the Impact of Deterministic and Stochastic Dynamics on the Persistence of Measles. J. R. Soc. Interface 7: 623-640.  PDF



Rohani, P.  The link between dengue incidence and El Nino Southern Oscillation. PLoS Medicine   6(11): e1000185. PDF

Wearing, H.J. & Rohani, P.  Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures. PLoS Pathogens 5(10): e1000647. PDF

Niogret, J., Sait, S.M. & Rohani, P.  Parasitism and constitutive defense costs on host life history traits in the parasitoid-host interaction Venturia canescens – Plodia interpunctellaEcological Entomology 34: 763-771. PDF

Bonds, M.H.&Rohani, P.  Herd Immunity Acquired Indirectly From Interactions Between the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Demography, and Economics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 7:641-547. PDF

Rohani, P., Breban, R. Stallknecht, D.E. & Drake, J.M.  Environmental Transmission of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses and its Implications for Pathogen Invasion. PNAS 106:10365-9. PDF

Breban, R., Drake, J.M., Stallknecht, D.E. & Rohani, P.  The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.PLoS Computational Biology 5: e1000346. PDF



Keeling, M.J. & Rohani, P. (2008) Modelling Infectious Diseases. Princeton University Press.

Book Reviews:


Nguyen, H.T.H. & Rohani, P. (2008) Noise, nonlinearity and seasonality: the epidemics of whooping cough revisited. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5: 403-413  PDF

Hall, S.R., Brown, J.M., Caceres, C.E., Chase, J.M., Dobson, A.P., Holt, R.D., Jones, C.G., Lafferty, K.D., McCauley, D., Randolph, S.E. &Rohani, P. (2008) Is infectious disease just another type of consumer-resource interaction? In: Infectious Disease Ecology (Eds: Osfeld, Keesing & Eviner), Princeton University Press.

Rohani, P., Wearing, H.J., Vasco, D.A. Huang, Y. (2008) Understanding Host-Multi-Pathogen Systens: The Interaction Between Ecology and Immunology. In: Infectious Disease Ecology (Eds: Osfeld, Keesing & Eviner), Princeton University Press.



Cameron, T.C., Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P. & Sait, S.M. (2007) Two species asymmetric competition: Effects of age structure on intra- and inter-specific interactions. Journal of Animal Ecology 76: 83-93. PDF

Vasco, D.A., Wearing, H.J. & Rohani, P. (2007) Tracking the Dynamics of Pathogen Interactions: Modeling Ecological and Immune-Mediated Processes in a Two-Pathogen Single-Host System. J. theor. Biol. 245: 9-25. PDF

White, S. , Sait, S.M. & Rohani, P. (2007) Exploring the Population Dynamic Consequences of Parasitised-Larval Competition in Stage-Structured Host-Parasitoid. Oikos 116: 1171-1185.  PDF

Broutin, H., Mantilla-Beniers N.B. & Rohani, P. (2007) Ecology of infectious disease dynamics. In: Encyclopedia of Infectious Diseases(Ed: Tibayranc), Wiley Press.

Choisy, M., Guegan, J.F. & Rohani, P. (2007) Mathematical modelling of infectious disease dynamics. In: Encyclopedia of Infectious Diseases (Ed: Tibayranc), Wiley Press.



Altizer, S., Dobson, A.P., Hosseini, P., Hudson, P.J., Pascual, M. & RohaniP. (2006) Seasonality and population dynamics: infectious diseases as case studies. Ecol. Letts. 9: 467-484  PDF

Wearing, H.J. & Rohani, P. (2006) The ecological and immunological determinants of Dengue epidemics. PNAS 103: 11802-11807.PDF Featured Faculty of 1000 Biology.

Choisy, M., Guegan, J.F. & Rohani, P. (2006) Resonance effects and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Physica D 223: 26-35.  PDF

Reader, T., Cornell, S.J. & Rohani, P. (2006) Aggregation, intraguild interactions and the coexistence of competitors on small ephemeral patches. Oikos 115: 321-333.  PDF

Huang, Y. & Rohani, P. (2006) Age-structured effects determine interference between childhood infections. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 273: 1229-1237.  PDF

Bonds, M.H. (2006) Host Life-History Strategy Explains Pathogen-Induced Sterility. Am. Nat. 168:.  PDF

Choisy, M. & Rohani, P.(2006) Harvesting can increase severity of wildlife disease epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 273: 2025-2034.  PDF Featured Faculty of 1000 Biology.

Alexander, M.E., Moghadas, S.M., Rohani, P. & Summers, A.R. (2006) Modelling the effect of a booster vaccination on disease epidemiology. J. Math. Biol. 52: 290–306.  PDF



Bonds, M.H., Keenan, D.C., Leidner, A.J. & Rohani, P. (2005) Infectious Diseases Can Induce Greater Sociality. Evolution 59: 1859-1866.  PDF

Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P. & Keeling, M.J. (2005) Appropriate Models for the Management of Infectious Diseases. PLoS Medicine 2: e174 .  PDF

Broutin, H., Mantilla-Beniers, N.B., Simondon, F., Aaby, P., Grenfell, B.T. Guégan, J.-F. & Rohani, P. (2005) Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal. Microbes & Infection 7:593-599.  PDF

Huang, Y. & Rohani, P. (2005) The Dynamical Implications of Disease Interference: Correlations and Coexistence. Theor. Pop. Biol.68: 205-215.  PDF Featured Faculty of 1000 Biology.

Cameron, T.C., Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P. & Sait, S.M. (2005) A koinobiont parasitoid mediates competition and generates additive mortality in healthy host populations. Oikos 110: 620-628.  PDF



Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P., Cameron, T. & Sait, S.M. (2004) The dynamical consequences of developmental variability and demographic stochasticity. Am. Nat. 164: 543-558.  PDF

Wearing, H.J., Sait, S.M., Cameron, T. & Rohani, P. (2004) Stage-structured competition and the cyclic dynamics of host-parasitoid populations. J. Anim. Ecol. 7: 706-722.  PDF

Coulson, T.N., Rohani, P. & Pascual, M. (2004) Skeletons, noise and population growth: the end of an old debate? Trends Ecol. & Evol.19: 360-364.  PDF Featured Faculty of 1000 Biology.

Rohani, P., Miramontes, O. & Keeling, M.J. (2004) The Colour of Short Ecological Time-Series. Math. Med. & Biol. 21: 63-72.  PDF

Broutin, H., Rohani, P., Guegan, J.-F., Grenfell, B.T. & Simondon, F. (2004) Loss of Immunity to Pertussis in a Rural Community. Vaccine22:594-596.  PDF



Rohani, P., Wearing, H.J., Cameron, T. & Sait, S.M. (2003) Natural Enemy Specialisation and the Period of Population Cycles. Ecol. Letts 6: 381-384.  PDF

Rohani, P., Green, C.J., Mantilla-Beniers, N.B. & Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Ecological Interference Among Fatal Infections. Nature 422: 885-888.  PDF



Miramontes, O. & Rohani, P. (2002) Estimating 1/fa scaling exponent in short time-series. Physica D 166, 147-154.  PDF

Rohani, P., Keeling, M.J., & Grenfell, B.T. (2002) The Interplay Between Noise and Determinism in Childhood Diseases. American Naturalist 159, 469-481.  PDF

Keeling, M.J. & Rohani, P. (2002) Spatial Coupling in Epidemiology: A Mechanistic Approach. Ecology Letters 5, 20-29.  PDF



Keeling, M.J., Rohani, P. & Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Seasonally Forced Disease Dynamics Explained by Switching Between Attractors.Physica D 148, 317-335.  PDF



Earn, D.J.D., Levin, S.A. & Rohani, P. (2000) Coherence and Conservation. Science 290, 1360-1364.  PDF

Rohani, P., Earn, D.J.D. & Grenfell, B.T. (2000) The Impact of Immunisation on Pertussis Transmission in England & Wales. Lancet 355, 285-286.  PDF

Rohani, P., Earn, D.J.D. & Grenfell, B.T. (2000) Immunisation and Pertussis Transmission in England & Wales. Lancet 355, 1553-1554.  PDF

Earn, D.J.D., Rohani, P., Bolker, B.M. & Grenfell, B.T. (2000) A Simple Model for Complex Dynamical Transitions in Epidemics. Science287, 667-670.  PDF